The next meeting of the National Seminar on Probability and Statistics will be held on .November 27, 2019 (Wednesday), at 2.00 p.m., in Room 403 of the Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, BAS. A talk on Statistical calibration of numerical models will be delivered by Marek Brabec (Institute of Computer Science, Czech Academy of Sciences). Everybody is invited. Abstract. We will present a general semiparametric approach to calibration of numerical model against measurements and illustrate it on large-scale data from ongoing projects. The measurement of the air pollution is typically sparsely located in space. Physically formulated mesoscale weather prediction models (WRF) coupled with chemical transport models (CAMx) can provide valuable source of additional information. Physical/chemical/transport models can be viewed as a formalized post-processing of emission [...]

The next meeting of the National Seminar on Probability and Statistics will be held on .October 30, 2019 (Wednesday), at 2.00 p.m., in Room 403 of the Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, BAS. A talk on A few probabilistic problems related to works of A.N. Shiryaev: new results and a little history will be delivered by Yordan Stoyanov (IMI-BAS). Everybody is invited. Abstract. The discussion will be on characterizations of probability distributions in terms such as moments and/or semi-invariants (cumulants). Details will be given on: (1) non-conventional limits of random sequences; (2) new checkable conditions for moment determinacy of distributions. New results will be reported for both absolutely continuous and discrete distributions.  The presentation will include also historical facts about ideas and techniques, some [...]

The next meeting of the National Seminar on Probability and Statistics will be held on .July 31, 2019 (Wednesday), at 3.00 p.m., in Room 403 of the Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, BAS. A talk on Extracting extreme aspects from series of random dynamical systems will be delivered by Milan Stehlik (Johannes Kepler University in Linz, Austria). Everybody is invited. Abstract

The next meeting of the National Seminar on Probability and Statistics will be held on .July 3, 2019 (Wednesday), at 2.00 p.m., in Room 403 of the Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, BAS. A talk on Probabilistic models for primes will be delivered by Kevin Ford (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign). Everybody is invited. Abstract: We introduce a new probabilistic model for primes, which we believe is a better predictor for the behavior of prime in short intervals than the existing models of Cramer and Granville. We also make strong connections between our model, prime k-tuple counts, large gaps and the "square-root sieve".  In particular, our model makes a prediction about large prime gaps that may contradict the models of Cramer and Granville, depending on [...]

The next meeting of the National Seminar on Probability and Statistics will be held on .May 8, 2019 (Wednesday), at 2.00 p.m., in Eoom 403 of the Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, BAS. A talk on Lagrangian Probability Distributions in Queueing Theory will be delivered by Nikolay I. Nikolov (IMI-BAS). Everybody is invited.

The next meeting of the National Seminar on Probability and Statistics will be held on April 10, 2019 (Wednesday),AT 2.00 p.m., in Eoom 403 of the Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, BAS. A talk on Tails and probabilities for p-outliers will be delivered by Pavlina Yordanova  (Shumen University). Everybody is invited. Abstract

The next meeting of the National Seminar on Probability and Statistics will be held on February 13, 2019 (Wednesday),AT 2.00 p.m., in Eoom 403 of the Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, BAS. A talk on Levy process generated by infinitely divisible logarithmic series distribution will be delivered by Penka Mayster (IMI-BAS). Everybody is invited. Abstract

The next meeting of the National Seminar on Probability and Statistics will be held on February 6, 2019 (Wednesday),AT 2.00 p.m., in Eoom 403 of the Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, BAS. Two talks will be delivered by doctoral students from the University of Paderborn. Alexander Klump: "A specific $N$-particle system of Fleming-Viot Type: Recurrence-transience properties" and Matthias Liesenfeld: "Hidden Markov Model Structure in some Fleming-Viot type particle system" Everybody is invited. Abstract (A. Klump): We introduce a particle process of $N$ individuals which perform Brownian motion in one or more dimensions up to an exponential time with rate $lambda N$. At this time the particle with the minimal fitness jumps on an uniformly chosen remaining particle, where fitness is measured by the function $s(x) = [...]