The next meeting of the National Seminar on Probability and Statistics will be held on .January 8, 2020 (Wednesday), at 2.00 p.m., in Room 403 of the Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, BAS. A talk on Polya-Aeppli processes of order k in risk theory will be delivered by Meglena Lazarova (Technical University of Sofia). Everybody is invited. Abstract
The next meeting of the National Seminar on Probability and Statistics will be held on .November 27, 2019 (Wednesday), at 2.00 p.m., in Room 403 of the Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, BAS. A talk on Statistical calibration of numerical models will be delivered by Marek Brabec (Institute of Computer Science, Czech Academy of Sciences). Everybody is invited. Abstract. We will present a general semiparametric approach to calibration of numerical model against measurements and illustrate it on large-scale data from ongoing projects. The measurement of the air pollution is typically sparsely located in space. Physically formulated mesoscale weather prediction models (WRF) coupled with chemical transport models (CAMx) can provide valuable source of additional information. Physical/chemical/transport models can be viewed as a formalized post-processing of emission [...]
The next meeting of the National Seminar on Probability and Statistics will be held on .October 30, 2019 (Wednesday), at 2.00 p.m., in Room 403 of the Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, BAS. A talk on A few probabilistic problems related to works of A.N. Shiryaev: new results and a little history will be delivered by Yordan Stoyanov (IMI-BAS). Everybody is invited. Abstract. The discussion will be on characterizations of probability distributions in terms such as moments and/or semi-invariants (cumulants). Details will be given on: (1) non-conventional limits of random sequences; (2) new checkable conditions for moment determinacy of distributions. New results will be reported for both absolutely continuous and discrete distributions. The presentation will include also historical facts about ideas and techniques, some [...]
The next meeting of the National Seminar on Probability and Statistics will be held on .July 31, 2019 (Wednesday), at 3.00 p.m., in Room 403 of the Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, BAS. A talk on Extracting extreme aspects from series of random dynamical systems will be delivered by Milan Stehlik (Johannes Kepler University in Linz, Austria). Everybody is invited. Abstract
The next meeting of the National Seminar on Probability and Statistics will be held on .July 3, 2019 (Wednesday), at 2.00 p.m., in Room 403 of the Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, BAS. A talk on Probabilistic models for primes will be delivered by Kevin Ford (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign). Everybody is invited. Abstract: We introduce a new probabilistic model for primes, which we believe is a better predictor for the behavior of prime in short intervals than the existing models of Cramer and Granville. We also make strong connections between our model, prime k-tuple counts, large gaps and the "square-root sieve". In particular, our model makes a prediction about large prime gaps that may contradict the models of Cramer and Granville, depending on [...]
The next meeting of the National Seminar on Probability and Statistics will be held on .June 26, 2019 (Wednesday), at 3.00 p.m., in Room 403 of the Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, BAS. A talk on Geometric and Geometric-Like Processes: An Overview and Some Applications will be delivered by Stefanka Chukova (Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand). Everybody is invited. Abstract: In the first part of this talk we introduce the geometric-like processes. The geometric process introduced by Lam (1988) can be used to model the occurrence of events with underlying monotonic trends. This type of trends can be observed in many practical problems in different areas of our everyday life, such as engineering, epidemiology, business, health, etc. In order to provide improved flexibility in [...]
The next meeting of the National Seminar on Probability and Statistics will be held on .June 19, 2019 (Wednesday), at 2.00 p.m., in Eoom 403 of the Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, BAS. A talk on A decomposable multi-type Bellman-Harris branching process with mutations. Application in modeling of cancer evolution will be delivered by Kaloyan Vitanov (PhD student at Sofia University). Everybody is invited. Abstract: A prominent feature of biological systems is their capacity to adapt and mutation is a key mechanism for achieving adaptation. As a continuation of [3] we propose a decomposable multi-type Bellman-Harris branching process, which incorporates a possibility for mutation. Metastasis, the spread of cancer cells from a primary tumour to secondary location(s) in the human organism, is the ultimate [...]
The next meeting of the National Seminar on Probability and Statistics will be held on .May 8, 2019 (Wednesday), at 2.00 p.m., in Eoom 403 of the Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, BAS. A talk on Lagrangian Probability Distributions in Queueing Theory will be delivered by Nikolay I. Nikolov (IMI-BAS). Everybody is invited.
The next meeting of the National Seminar on Probability and Statistics will be held on April 10, 2019 (Wednesday),AT 2.00 p.m., in Eoom 403 of the Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, BAS. A talk on Tails and probabilities for p-outliers will be delivered by Pavlina Yordanova (Shumen University). Everybody is invited. Abstract
The next meeting of the National Seminar on Probability and Statistics will be held on February 13, 2019 (Wednesday),AT 2.00 p.m., in Eoom 403 of the Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, BAS. A talk on Levy process generated by infinitely divisible logarithmic series distribution will be delivered by Penka Mayster (IMI-BAS). Everybody is invited. Abstract
